The FBI has once again proven itself more aligned with political agendas than with serving the American people. In September 2023, the agency released what it touted as the "final" crime data for 2022, claiming a 2.1% drop in the nation's violent crime rate—a statistic eagerly adopted by the Democratic Party to counter assertions of escalating crime.
But in a silent admission of either incompetence or manipulation, the FBI has revised those numbers to reveal a 4.5% increase in violent crime for 2022. This "update" includes staggering additions: 1,699 more murders, 7,780 more rapes, 33,459 more robberies, and 37,091 more aggravated assaults than previously reported.
Remarkably, the Bureau made no effort to announce or explain these significant changes in its September 2024 press release. The only hint was a cryptic note on its website stating, "The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023," without acknowledging the upward revisions. One has to dig through the data files to uncover the truth—a tactic unworthy of a transparent agency.
Researchers are rightly concerned. Carl Moody, a crime statistics professor at the College of William & Mary, noted, "The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data." Thomas Marvell, president of Justec Research, echoed this sentiment: "It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes."
The updated data undermines the narrative of decreasing crime. Without the increase, the supposed drop in violent crime for 2023 would be less than half as large—only 1.6% instead of the reported 3.5%. This is not a minor adjustment; it's a blatant distortion.
The FBI's method of estimating crime is fundamentally flawed. Rather than simply tallying reported crimes, the agency extrapolates data from incomplete reports and even invents figures for cities that provide no data. Their opaque and ever-changing estimation methods render their reports unreliable.
Adding to the deception, most crimes aren't reported to the police—only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS). So when the media parrots the FBI's misleading statistics, they're ignoring a vast portion of unrecorded offenses.
The NCVS paints a far grimmer picture. Instead of a 3.5% drop in reported violent crime in 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase. In 2022, while the FBI grudgingly admits to a 4.5% rise, the NCVS reports a staggering 29.1% increase in violent crime.
Under the current administration, the NCVS data reveals that total violent crime has soared by 55.4%. Specifically, rapes have increased by 42%, robberies by 63%, and aggravated assaults by 55%. These are the largest percentage increases over any three-year span since the NCVS began, more than doubling the previous record.
Meanwhile, the number of police officers has dwindled due to budget cuts and retirements. Many departments no longer respond to certain crime reports unless the perpetrator is present, further skewing crime statistics downward and giving a false sense of security.
The American public isn't fooled. A Gallup survey found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats believe crime is increasing. Another poll revealed that "crime and violence" is the second biggest concern for Americans, after inflation. Yet, the FBI and complicit media outlets continue to disseminate misleading data to downplay these legitimate fears.
"This lack of transparency harms the FBI’s credibility," said David Mustard, a distinguished professor researching crime. Indeed, an agency that conceals the truth about public safety fails in its fundamental duty. The FBI's actions suggest an unsettling prioritization of political narratives over the well-being of the nation.
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