In a surprising turn of events, President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, once widely criticized as a recipe for economic turmoil, are gaining unexpected support from prominent economists. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, recently admitted on CNN that Trump’s trade strategy may have “outsmarted all of us.” This marks a significant shift from Sløk’s earlier warnings that tariffs could destabilize the U.S. economy, disrupt global trade, and harm small businesses. As new analyses emerge, a growing chorus of voices is reevaluating the impact of Trump’s aggressive tariff approach, suggesting it may be delivering results where skeptics anticipated failure.
Since taking office in January 2025, President Trump has rolled out a sweeping tariff policy, including a 10% universal tariff on most U.S. imports, 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% on Chinese goods, with threats of further increases. The administration’s stated goals are to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, encourage domestic manufacturing, generate federal revenue, and pressure foreign governments on issues like immigration and drug trafficking. Trump has framed tariffs as a tool to “make America wealthy again,” arguing they protect American industries and incentivize companies to produce domestically.
Initially, these policies faced fierce opposition. Economists like Sløk, alongside institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, warned that tariffs would raise consumer prices, disrupt supply chains, and risk a global recession. A 2018 survey found that no economic experts believed tariffs on steel and aluminum would improve Americans’ welfare, and studies highlighted how Trump’s first-term tariffs increased costs for U.S. importers and consumers.
Sløk’s recent commentary represents a striking departure from this skepticism. In April 2025, he cautioned that Trump’s tariffs, particularly on China, could lead to supply chain disruptions, job losses, and economic contraction. Yet, in June 2025, he acknowledged that the administration’s strategy might be yielding unexpected benefits. Sløk now suggests that tariffs are generating significant federal revenue—potentially $400 billion annually—while prompting trade negotiations that could address long-standing imbalances. He notes that businesses are adapting, markets are stabilizing, and countries like China have reduced their retaliatory tariffs in response to U.S. pressure.
Sløk’s reversal is not an isolated case. Other analysts are beginning to echo his reassessment. Some claim that Trump’s tariffs have pressured China to negotiate, protected U.S. industries like steel with an estimated 10,000 new jobs created, and boosted exports by 5% since January 2025. These claims, while not universally verified, suggest a shift in perception among some economic observers who see Trump’s approach as a long-term solution rather than a reckless gamble.
Despite Sløk’s pivot, the economic community remains divided. Some support Trump’s tariffs, arguing they challenge the failed system of globalization and could revitalize U.S. manufacturing in the long term, despite short-term disruptions. Others warn that tariffs will fuel inflation, harm workers, and strain international relations, predicting higher prices and slower growth. Projections suggest Trump’s tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by 8% and wages by 7%, with a middle-income household facing a $58,000 lifetime loss. Critics also argue that Trump’s tariffs lack a modern, worker-focused strategy, predicting annual costs of $5,200 per household and limited job creation due to the U.S.’s near-full employment.
Recent data offers a mixed picture. Tariffs amount to a $1,200 annual tax increase per U.S. household, with potential disruptions to supply chains and higher consumer prices. Global growth forecasts for 2025 have been downgraded, citing tariffs as a key factor, and U.S. GDP contracted by 0.05% in the first quarter of 2025. Japan’s stock market fell 7.8% after a 25% tariff on cars, and Mexico’s auto industry faces a potential 16% GDP hit. Yet, there are signs of progress. The White House claims tariffs have generated $100 billion in annual revenue, supporting Trump’s goal of funding tax cuts. Steel and aluminum tariffs have reportedly boosted domestic production, and some countries, like China, have shown willingness to negotiate. The administration’s pause on certain tariffs, such as a 90-day reprieve for most countries except China, has also calmed markets temporarily.
Public opinion remains skeptical. A survey from April 2025 found that 59% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s tariff increases, with 90% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans expressing concern. Younger adults, Hispanics, and low-income voters—key parts of Trump’s base—are particularly critical, with 61% of Americans believing tariffs raise prices. Internationally, allies like Canada, Japan, and the EU have expressed alarm, with some accusing Trump of using tariffs to pressure geopolitical concessions. Retaliatory tariffs from China, Canada, and Mexico have further complicated the global trade landscape.
Trump’s tariff strategy remains a high-stakes gamble. Supporters see it as a bold move to reshape global trade and strengthen U.S. manufacturing, with early successes in revenue and negotiations. Critics warn of inflationary pressures, job losses in import-dependent industries, and strained alliances. While tariffs may yield short-term concessions, they risk long-term damage to U.S. economic leadership and global trade networks. As the administration navigates this complex terrain, the question remains whether Trump’s tariffs will deliver the promised economic revival or lead to the downturn many still fear. Sløk’s admission that Trump “outsmarted all of us” underscores a growing debate: is this a masterstroke of economic strategy or a risky experiment with uncertain outcomes? Only hindsight will tell.
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