By: Steve Dellar | 02-06-2018 | News
Photo credit: Credit - Twitter @ErickGtz59

Mexico Elections 2018 - Leftist Obrador Holds Double-Digit Lead

Texas oil majors will tremble at the latest Presidential polls coming out of Mexico where leftist candidate Lopez Obrador seems to have widened his lead over the other three rivals to double digits.

Mr Lopez Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor, has been spooking multinationals for months, knowing that he spoke after Mexico’s most successful auction since a landmark energy opening was finalized in 2014 (one of many auctions in which billions of dollars of contracts were given out): “We will revise all these contracts, we will not allow the oil, which is owned by the people and the nation, to go back into the hands of foreigners.”

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Mr Jim Barrineau, who looks upon Mexico for Schroders Investment Management said: "The market is not priced for this,"

"Since last year when the earliest polls showed Lopez Obrador with a lead, he has been a concern to investors."

"The resonance of the corruption issue, which is the cornerstone of his campaign, suggests his lead may have staying power as the race heats up."

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="es" dir="ltr"><a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AMLO2018</a> <a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MorenaVa</a> <a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#JuntosHaremosHistoria</a> <br><br>Con 38% de preferencias, López Obrador va a la cabeza; Anaya mantiene el segundo, Meade tercero<a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p>&mdash; Erick Gutierrez (@ErickGtz59) <a href="">February 6, 2018</a></blockquote>

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The leftist candidate leads the pack with 38 percent, steady keeping his lead and up 3 percentage points since November. Meanwhile the centre and centre-right is getting fragmented between the three other candidates. Support for Mr Ricardo Anaya, the former chairman of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) grew to some 27 percent while finance minister Jose Antonio Meade (PRI) has 22 percent of the Mexicans backing him.

Political analysts looking at Mexico are convinced that Mr Anaya will cut a deal with Mr Meade at a certain point, making it in the end a two way race between himself and Mr Obrador.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="es" dir="ltr"><a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AMLO</a>, con más de 10 puntos de ventaja sobre <a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RicardoAnaya</a> y <a href=";ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Meade</a>. Vía <a href="">@ElFinanciero_Mx</a> <a href=""></a></p>&mdash; Pío López Obrador (@piochiapas) <a href="">February 6, 2018</a></blockquote>

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In any case, given the nationalist sentiment currently in the country, all candidates have found common ground in their criticism of US President Donald Trump and his plan to build a wall.


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